A recent analysis, led by Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden, indicates that the transition to a net-zero or net-negative European energy system will be difficult and costly unless the EU invests in biomass. In its press release Chalmers University states:
“Biomass is currently the EU’s largest renewable energy source, but climate strategies often focus on other energy technologies. A comprehensive analysis, led by Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden, now shows that biomass is crucial for Europe’s ability to reach its climate targets, as it can be used to produce fossil-free fuels and chemicals and also enables carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere. If biomass were excluded from the European energy system, it would cost an extra 169 billion Euros per year – about the same as the cost of excluding wind power.”
An interesting outcome of the analysis was that next to the relevance of bioenergy to replace fossil sources for energy generation, the value of the biogenic carbon in achieving negative emissions and providing a renewable alternative to fossil carbon in chemicals, plastics and fuels for hard-to-electrify sectors even surpasses the energetic value of biomass.
As the study’s lead author Markus Millinger, now a researcher at RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, and co-autors stated in the Policy Brief article in Nature Energy: “Biomass associated with low upstream emissions offers cost-effective renewable carbon for negative emissions and production of chemicals, aviation and shipping fuels, reducing the need for more costly options like direct air capture. Policy support for sustainable biomass use alongside emerging technologies reduces energy system costs and the risk of missing emissions targets.”
The article is published open access in Nature Energy: Millinger, M. et al. Nat. Energy (2025)
The authors also published an accompanying Policy Brief, which can be found here.
Biomass use in the European energy system: Feasible solution space to achieve net-negative carbon dioxide emissions (-110 percent compared to 1990). The shaded area illustrates how the maneuvering space for biomass use (y-axis) changes when the total energy system cost is allowed to increase above the lowest possible level (x-axis). A vertical line shows the possible variation in biomass usage at a total energy system cost one percent higher than the minimum level, illustrating how the diagram should be interpreted. Previous similar studies have typically focused on a single cost-optimal solution, which is difficult to achieve in practice. In this new study, researchers have contributed a flexible solution space in which the amount of biomass is almost cost-optimal. Illustration: Adapted from Millinger et al, CC BY 4.0
